Rebirth

All right, so life and other circumstances (*cough*laziness*cough*) prevented me from getting this blog off the ground last season, or during the offseason, or during spring training or... But I from here on promise at least one update per day, at least on average. One thing that's been happening a lot more often this year is my game attendance. I've already matched the number of games I've been to all of last season, even though one of the games I went to was the last game of the season as Papelbon collapsed and let the Angels sweep us out of the playoffs.

I've also decided to step up my writing in general, and since I hope for this blog to provide sort of "live look-ins" to snatches of time from my baseball fandom and artistic-intellectual life to be used in a future fictional work about baseball, this blog should prove to be of much use.

Some articles to look forward to in the near future:
Game Blogs: since I've already attended an unprecedented number of games, I'll be keeping track of them from here on out, maybe even catching up with the ones I've missed. (Opening Day, going with John to sit in the RIT seats on Patriot's Day, first time sitting in the Loges against the Orioles.) Going to the game tomorrow night, so hopefully this will be taken care of sooner.

More for my own memory, some historically-based entries. One on the call to revamp the triple crown winner's definition, one on the viability of 5-man rotations and subsequently the best five-man rotations of all time (who, for example, was the best 5th man?), an entry on my All-Star picks like last year, and more.

An attempt to get more at the aesthetics of baseball and what art has had to say about it, and vice versa.

Much more else to come, as my own fancy and the articles on BP prompt.

Play ball!

My All-Star Ballot

Will get this thing up and running soon. Want to talk about the disconnect between the more conventional fan and the stat-head and what that means for fandom and the game, but for right now, here's what my All-Star ballot looks like:

AL:
CA: Joe Mauer, MIN
1B: Kevin Youkilis, BOS
2B: Dustin Pedroia, BOS
3B: Evan Longoria, TBR
SS: Derek Jeter, NYY
OF: Jason Bay, BOS
OF: Carl Crawford, TBR
OF: Adam Jones, BAL

NL:
CA: Yadier Molina, STL
1B: Albert Pujols, STL
2B: Chase Utley, PHI
3B: Ryan Zimmerman, WSN
SS: Hanley Ramirez, FLA
OF: Ryan Braun, MIL
OF: Raul Ibanez, PHI
OF: Justin Upton, ARI

There are some names on there where there should be absolutely no discussion. Pedroia is the reigning AL MVP and putting up numbers that are so far very similar to last season's. Albert Pujols continues to be, almost head-and-shoulders, the best player in the game. Ibanez is the leading vote- and RBI-getter. Hanley Ramirez hasn't only been making fantasy owners very happy, he is genuinely phenomenal. Ryan Braun is, in my opinion, as obvious an OF selection as Ibanez. Mauer missed a month, sure, but he's made up those numbers in a hurry and then some.

Somehow, the impression has been that Utley's having an off-year, but that's madness. Besides, there's not a whole lot of other options for NL 2B. Schumaker has been effective coming into the infield and is putting up passable keystone numbers, but I've never heard of a "passable" All-Star. Uggla has been inconsistent on what is, settle down everyone, not a very good team. And that's basically it. Utley, however, has been, if quizzically quietly, very good, putting up an OPS+ of 156 bolstered by a fantastic, for a two-bagger, 12 homers. That OPS+ ties him for 7th in the NL and 2nd on the Phillies. His numbers only look "low" because he happens to be on the same team as RBI factories Ibanez and Howard. Ok, he's lost noticeable range from his surgery, but is still a fantastic fielder and appears to be moving back to his pre-surgery, black hole form.

Which brings me to my final, most painful entrant in the "no discussion" category: Derek Jeter. Like a band-aid, I'll do this as quickly as possible: Marco Scutaro is really the only other viable player, and no one has ever said, "Marco Scutaro, All Star" except as a joke. Should Scutaro be genuinely considered? I would say so. But I do think that there is some past cachet to be considered in All-Star voting unlike, say, Gold Glove voting to put a point on it, and Jeter has that, in addition to the numbers, going for him. Add to that the fact that the rest of the AL short-stops on the ballot range from batless gloves, to flat terrible, to injured, and there really is nothing more to say.

But what would an All-Star ballot be without discussion? I pick Kevin Youkilis over Mark Teixiera because, well, I'm a Red Sox fan and when you look at their seasons side-by-side, they're mirror images: Tex struggled initially while Youk torched the ball, now Tex is hitting very well while Youk, not exactly struggling, is in a bit of a slide. Meanwhile, Teixiera's team is in first after a slow start and has an astounding 20 come-from-behind victories. I get it, he's a sexy choice and a damn fine player. But I'm a Sox fan and I have been cornered into voting Jeter. Thanks, every other AL short stop.

Longoria is puttin up MVP numbers while playing outstanding defense. And he's done it all season. No suspensions or anything.

David Wright's numbers look conventionally good, but a little analysis shows that they're fairly superficial whereas Zimmerman's numbers are anything but. Ask any Mets fan what they think of Wright this year and you'll get a good grasp of the situation (not great at home, terrible to lead off the inning -- 216/356/378, low RBI and HR totals, especially in comparison to Zimmerman.)

The real discussion is in voting for two players to be All Stars for the first time in their young, meteoric careers: Adam Jones and Justin Upton. If I granted cachet to Jeter, then I am doing the opposite here. Though always highly touted, these players, one a member of the historic 2005 draft, should snag their first All Star appearances, either by vote or by selection, this season. Jones has exhibited all five of the tools he was touted to posses; don't let the numbers fool you, this guy is blazing fast. Justin Upton may not have as thorough speed as Jones, but what he does have is power, and that to spare. On top of that, he's younger than Jones. It will be interesting to see how the league adjusts to both, and how they respond to those adjustments, but I think these are two players who will be perrenial starters in the Summer Classic.

As for Yadi Molina? Ok, so Martin has better offense and comparable defense, McCann may be an offensive force more than making up for his relative, to Molina, defensive shortcomings (to take nothing, really, away from McCann, but Molina is an outstanding backstop and game caller). I grant all of that. But for all the justifications I've made for my picks, I think I've earned one blatant homer pick.

Baseball Simulacra

It's fitting that the first post of this blog should be addressing the mysterious alignments that sometimes occur in baseball. Some may call it mysticism, some may attribute it to divinity, I think it's just that when a small set of particular actions are recreated millions upon millions of times a year, similarities, odd seredipities, and fascinating coincidences are bound to be the result. Such an interesting coincidence occured in the Red Sox game last night.

But with everything, context. It is not enough, in baseball and its literary interpretations, to simply point to this or that happenstance and cry "a ha," because this is not true to the spirit of the game. Though this may satisfy they who pour dilligently over score sheets for some secret recipe for future success or explanation for the successes of the past, looking at the game from a purely statistical point of view, I think, can be damaging. To be sure, from a purely analytical standpoint, pure statistical analysis is the truest, best, and -- most important in a game where millions are won or lost with every RBI gained or squandered -- safest course of action for those in the game. But, as fans and critics, we are by necessity not in the game.*

Dispelling Misconceptions

That said, here are some numbers that any Red Sox fan at least since 2007 should keep in mind. The following numbers are Jonathan Papelbon's P/IP per month, per year, starting in 2007:

2007:
APR - 15.643
MAY - 18.100
JUN - 16.594
JLY - 15.261
AUG - 15.517
SEP - 12.636
2008:
APR - 14.538
MAY - 14.692
JUN - 15.200
JLY - 16.179
AUG - 15.938
SEP - 17.471
2009 (so far):
APR - 20.516
MAY - 16.957 #



Much has been said this year about Papelbon's erraticism this season, and not unjustifiably. In many ways, 2009 has seen Papelbon's worst April of his closing career. Other stats bear that out as well. This April, Papelbon's WHIP and K/BB have been 1.355 and 1.67 compared to figures of 0.628/7, 0.750/3, and 0.846/20(!) for 2006-08, respectively. One of the difficulties in the analysis of closers is the inherently small sample size; even keeping this in mind, I had, before this research, the idea that Papelbon's erraticism this year was typical of his Aprils and that, with his solid performance last night, he was exhibiting signs of returning to his baseline. As it stands, I was only half-right. He certainly seems to returning to his baseline -- with 7 2/3 IP this May, the relative sample size is large enough to make this judgment -- but it is a general rather than month-specific baseline.

Game Log

Last night, facing the Blue Jays, Papelbon saved a very good Tim Wakefield start in a perfect inning. Someone said to me, somewhat with tongue-in-cheek, that this must be the first time in 2009 that Papelbon had collected a save in one perfect inning in 12 pitches. However, due to his bad April, this was more true than the person realized. It was, in fact, only his third perfect inning of the season, the first coming in a non-save situation in the second game of a double-header against MIN on April 22, the first against OAK in extra innings April 14.^ But neither of these were save situations.

Here is Papelbon's game log from last night:
Blue Jays @ Red Sox, 5/19/09, facing 5-7
Lind: K swinging (three pitches)
Rolen: Groundout - 4-3 (three pitches)
Overbay: Groundout - 3u (six pitches)

Here is Papelbon's game log from the previous time:
Blue Jays @ Red Sox, 9/12/09, facing 5-7
Overbay: Groundout - 4-3 (one pitch)
Lind: K swinging (seven pitches)
Rolen: Ground - 6-3 (four pitches)

Same number of pitches, same batters, albeit in different order, same pitching line, very similar plays.

There are a couple stories here: of Papelbon's amazing consistency thus far in his career; the comparison of a first-place TOR team at this point in 2009 to what was, according to many sources, the best fourth-place team in league history at the time in 2008; that each game had arguably the same hero: Jacoby Ellsbury was 2-4 in the 09 game, 2-4 with 3R and 1RBI in 08; but one of the primary topics I want to explore in this blog -- something that that final stat of Ellsbury's further illustrates -- is baseball's knack for delivering not only interesting story lines, but sometimes fascinating coincidences.

Where numbers can be used to predict future performances (Papelbon's career line against TOR reads: 5-1, 15 saves, 1.09 ERA, .879 WHIP over 33 IP with 32 Ks; so saying that Papelbon might do well in the future against TOR is not exactly a great leap), they have two much more powerful functions, in my opinion.

The first is to dispell misconceptions. Too often last season did I hear that Johan Santana was not living up to his contract terms by not putting up "Cy Young" numbers. I do think the right, that is to say, most deserving, player, Tim Lincecum, won it, but Santana should have finished higher. Brandon Webb was nothing like the pitcher Johan Santana was last year. Webb did, however, have six more wins, something that Santana would easily, easily have attained had he had anything approaching a league-average bullpen. And the only reason I can discern why Bert Blyleven isn't in the Hall of Fame is due to his low win totals. One might need to look a little closer at the numbers to deduce that Johan Santana was a better pitcher than Brandon Webb last year, but even the most cursory glance at any of Blyleven's numbers other than win totals seems to insist he be enshrined.$

The second, one that I will seek to explore much more in depth, is to add a layer, often hidden of depth to the game, and not just analytical depth. It is no secret that this game has endeared itself to artists and writers in particular. There is a lyricisim to it, and the combination of meticulous practice and fearless execution is certainly something, at least for my part, that artists can appreciate.

In his essay, "The Myth of Sisyphus," Camus decried looking at reality with a sense of pure reason, as this path will inevitably descend into poetry. One can appreciate that we are guided and subject to evolution, one can appreciate the incredible reducibility of nature down to atoms, but neither of these are things we can see. Michael Lewis in Moneyball made a similar observation in that an everyday player .290 is, to the everyday observer, virtually indistinguishable from the hitter with a .300 average (plug in OBP or SLG if those stats are more to your flavor; I'd say a .480 slugger is even harder to tell from a .490 slugger than when using averages). The statistical analyst can quantify these two players more effectively and more thoroughly, but, for the semiotician, these multifarious statistics are a language unto themselves.

The method of interpretting how what is written into what is said is through criticism. With this blog, I hope to accomplish this same act of interpretation. Mostly, anyway.

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*Though I did not always hold this opinion. More on this in a later post.
#Papelbon's average P/IP for this period, for the curious: 16.030
^Another indication that this has been Papelbon's worst start of his closing career. Before 2009, he had averaged 5.3 perfect innings per April, though it should be said that he only had three in 2007 -- if nothing else, this is assuring to me that April of 2009 will be as exciting as he gets this season.
$Fortunately, for Blyleven and for justice, every player that has received more than 60% of the HoF vote in any year has become enshrined eventually.